2015:05 Technical Note, Review of uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis in SR-Site Main Review Phase

The review assignment SSM2014-2060 “Review of uncertainty and sensi- tivity analysis in SR-Site” addressed three issues: 

  1. Adequacy of the methods adopted by SKB for conducting sensitivity analyses
  2. Approach for use of conservative and best-estimate parameter values
  3. Propagation of uncertainty for the corrosion scenario 

Adequacy of the methods for sensitivity analyses:

The sensitivity analyses (SA) were carried out using well-established approaches the choice of which is adequately justified by SKB. The choice of SA methods seems appropriate and the results obtained reasonable and furthermore supported by physico-chemical reasoning. The reviewer wonders whether further insight about system behaviour could have been obtained by carrying out SA not only for the results of dose calculations but also for THMC models used for calculating safety function indicators. Suggestions concerning the handling of dependent inputs were made by the reviewer.